Ann: Koolan Island High Grade Iron Ore Shipments to Accelerate, page-7

Solid update.

Plugging into my model, my read on this is:

Q3: 598,000t to produce EBITDA (before admin costs) of about $60 - $62m
Q4: I have used 13 ships / 975,000t to produce EBITDA (before admin costs) of about $103m

FY24: (assuming constant prices and 0.7000 currency), I am seeing EBITDA (after admin costs) of about $460m - this will be subject to update with guidance around costs.

So the bottom line story is that the business should begin becoming a very strong cash generator from next month. It should end FY23 with > $100m net cash in bank, building on that in FY24. Absent any corporate play and just allowing for normal maintenance capex, tax, etc, my model is showing a free cashflow of >$275m in FY24 or about 22cps.