I am a relative newcomer to this forum and don't much understand the history behind the bickering. But I am not sure why we cannot have a polite conversation without insulting each other? I highly value the opposing arguments, facts and opinions. I have greatly benefitted from the discussions here. Here are a few of my own observations (albeit stating the obvious for many):
Unfavourable conditions
1) Global markets are jittery at the moment due to the perceived risks in the banking sector.
2) Geo-political uncertainty stemming from Ukraine war has driven global inflation and adversely impacted investor/consumer confidence.
3) 88E's two previous wells have been unflattering. Remember, SP went over 9c and obviously those that bought at those prices have lost heaps. Hence, ppl are more cautious this time and the management has to prove itself with results than predictions.
4) Shares on issue has also increased substantially in the past 2 years.
5) PANR whose discovery we are hoping to ride on, peaked at GBP 149 on 12/4/2022, then GBP 140 on 23/8/2022. Currently trading at GBP 25.66. That is a sharp drop.
Optimism
1) Hickory is fundamentally a different prospect to the previous two wells. The location selection based on PANR discovery is significant and by far the greatest speculatory attraction of 88E. While there are opposing predictions of the outcome, an upside to PANR cannot be ruled out at this stage.
2) Emerging re-alignment of Saudi Arabia away from the US sphere of influence and the risk of Europe over-reliance on Russian oil has shifted back focus on short-medium term energy solutions, and I believe oil and gas are back on the agenda. (rationale thinking is slowly re-emerging).
3) As a highly liquid share with relatively low SP (lower barrier to entry), 88E is an attractive speculative investment for the investors.
4) Alaska in general is a proven basin for oil. 88E acreage remains very attractive for long-term investors given the very low entry point. Hence, one could see the healthy spread and caliber of the top 20 shareholders.
On balance of pros and cons, I have bet big. I have increased my holdings 10x this year. No guarantees (in life). But I hope, it will be good news this year for all our sake. (Disclaimer: I am not a financial planner, please seek your own investment and financial advice).
# Let's assume there are no hidden agendas and encourage all opinions.
(20min delay)