While I have not read this entire thread, and have not been reading HC much at all lately, my thoughts are:
- DRC election is scheduled for 20-Dec-2023.
- Felix will want to have the ML all sorted and with AVZ building the mine well before the election campaigning begins.
- Maybe the campaigning will start 2 months before the election, say 20-Oct.
- Maybe Felix will want AVZ to really get cracking with the mine development 1 month before that, say 20-Sep.
- Maybe Felix will want the the ML sorted 1 month before AVZ gets cracking, say 20-Aug.
In summary, ML issued no later than 20-Aug, AVZ immediately gets cracking with the mine development, no need to wait for the ICC thingy, which will be a sideshow of little interest.
-----------------------------------------------------
i haven't read this entire thread either, come here every now and then....
i would be very surprised if the drc government decided to wait until at least september of 2024, this could even drag into the first quarter of 2025, who is to say it won't?
my guess is that either felix or the next elected president will step in and sort it out without waiting for the icc's decision. the icc does not really have that much power...
the question is whether this decision will favour avz.
i tend to think that the minister of mines (the green lady) must have advised felix of her intentions to cancel decrees *before* she did so, so the cancellatioon must have occured with felix's knowledge / approval (of course i'm only guessing here), if this is the case why did he let this happen?
imo felix can't afford waiting this long, he will feel pressure to sort it out as there is too much big money locked up in the manono tenement, he will feel pressure from somewhere....
as to the coming elections in dec 2023, i don't think that voters care much about whether manono goes ahead sooner / later / at all - it is not goinng to be an election issue for them - there are other more important matters to these poor disilussioned people....
drc is a large and very fractured country, felix and his ministers don't really control most of the country except kinshasa and surroundings and there is *so much* happening there in politics wherever you look and life is very hard for ordinary people.
