RBA Interest Rates to plummet early 2024, page-292

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    Despite quick action by regulators and policy makers, there’s a rising risk that banking-system stress will spill over into other sectors and the U.S. economy, “unleashing greater financial and economic damage than we anticipated,” said Moody’s Investors Service, one of the Big Three credit-ratings firms.



    Simply put, the risk is that officials “will be unable to curtail the current turmoil without longer-lasting and potentially severe repercussions within and beyond the banking sector,” Atsi Sheth, Moody’s managing director of credit strategy, and others wrote in a note distributed on Thursday. Still, the agency’s baseline view is that U.S. officials will “broadly succeed.”



    Moody’s warning came as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the U.S. could take additional actions if needed to stabilize the banking system, and after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured Americans on Wednesday that the central bank would use its tools to protect depositors.



    Read: Regional banks get the attention, but worries are more widespread, says ex-FDIC chief Bair and Debate over expanding deposit insurance weighs on bank stocks. Here’s what to know.



    Beneath the surface, though, is lingering worry. Hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, for example, is warning of an acceleration of deposit outflows from banks and the latest global fund manager survey from Bank of America BAC, -2.42% found that 31% of 212 managers polled regard a systemic credit crunch as the biggest threat to markets.



    Of the three ways in which banking-system troubles could spill over more broadly, one of them is potentially the “most potent,” according to Moody’s: That is a general aversion to risk by financial-market players and a decision by banks to retrench from providing credit. Such a scenario could lead to the “crystallization of risk in multiple pockets simultaneously,” the ratings agency said.
 
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