SYA

6.67%

3.2¢ sayona mining limited

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arfbarf

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27/03/23

22:47

Post #: 66985490
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Originally posted by Kevo88: ↑

Well the fact we have already produced any SC6 which we have should be ecstatic news for us holders. Not many producers come online and start producing the good stuff immediately. Granted there could always be ramp up issues.

But even if we cant produce SC6 and its just under I guess this is what management have to establish before they can commit to offtake? Thats the only reasons I think they havent released the information.

I have no doubt we have some serious buyers lined up but they are probably barking the same tune. Before we sign up to buy your product we want a sample and we want to know you can produce x amount. Once we see that, sign us up.

The only comparison I can draw is with Ioneer which I have some knowledge of. But as we are a producer now its not really a fair like for like comparison.

All I see is that they have to wait until 2026 to be a producer (if all goes well). Comparitively if all goes well for us on SC6 grading and meeting output thats 3 and a half years of production relative to a peer.

So lets assume some conservative figures here.
2023 (half year) - $100M earnings.
2024 - $300M earnings.
2025 - $300M earnings.
2026 - $300M earnings.

So over the same time period your looking at a company that has over 1B in expected earnings relative to one that is waiting for permit to produce.
Granted they are expected resource expansion news in the near term. But when permit best case is next year in January. Followed by at best a 2 year build time. Thats very limited news and limited growth. Its also no cash inflow.

By that same timeframe, SYA would have assessed the viability of carbonate and be in a similar position regarding producing Carb or not as they are going straight to carbonate on their $825M project.

An with the addition of cashflow we also too have expected resource expansion.

But a project that is already in production can sooner expand its output than one that has not started. This is already clearly viable in the 600M of INR vs the 1.6B of SYA.

Risk factor for SYA - grading and output not being met, PLL would get most of it, if this happens.
Risk factor for INR - permit, project development delays, output/grade issues

Seems like a lot more immediate risk in the near term for INR than SYA. Again reflected in market cap

Expand

I don't quite agree with your assessment of "serious buyers" requiring further clarification because Tesla and LG had no problem buying Piedmont's share of NAL's output. LG has actually gone as far as to make a $75 million equity investment into PLL.

I think that our delay is likely tied into other pending stuff (Carbonate plant, Moblan, or maybe even Amos). Or perhaps the amount of sc6 that NAL can generate on a yearly basis.

If I am not wrong, PLL has only sold 100k of their 113k+/yr allotted amount.

Last edited by arfbarf: 27/03/23

SYA Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last 3.2¢		Change 0.002(6.67%)		Mkt cap ! $329.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
3.1¢	3.2¢	3.0¢	$604.3K	19.39M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
14	1767950	3.1¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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