The Labor/Green deal puts a max cap on emissions. As BA winds down, Springsure can build up - so long as total emissions remain within the max cap limits, then all good. So long as the max cap doesn't keep shifting lower, then the current total market size will be sustainable, albeit with the ongoing cost of green tickets to "offset" emissions.
There's quite a few tonnes coming out of the market in next few years - Newlands has stopped mining. Clermont due to close ~2025? Plus closures in NSW that are coming in the near-term. All these closures create capacity for new production, with hopefully more efficient & lower carbon footprint mining operations through the extensive use of H2, solar, and natural gas.
TER UNDERVALUED FAIR VALUE $1.20, page-286
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