Deals done in the biotech space are unique and can be structured in many ways, not to mention the affect to the stock will extremely difficult to anticipate.
But alas, let's consider the case of selling Her-Vaxx for $5 billion, so a product acquisition and not product licencing.
The upfront cash payment would go to IMU's coffers, and they would decide what amount to keep there and what amount to pay out in the form of dividends. But immediately, in a perfect world, the market cap would go up $5 billion (at least) soon after the announcement. In reality, it may go up a large portion of the $5 billion leaving a contingent amount for the deal to fall through. If there are comms from IMU about other potential offers (i.e. potential for bidding war) it's anyone's guess, again very difficult to factor this. Just highlighting some potential scenarios.
If the deal is subsequently agreed, "BP has agreed to buy Her-Vaxx for $5 billion, " which would get factored into the share price almost immediately (circa 76 cents). Any initial deal would add significant probability to subsequent deals and likely lead to a higher impact than $5 billion to the MC after a few weeks once people cotton on to what's happening.
IMU would unlikely pay all out as dividends. But the remainder would in effect get added to the market cap. e.g. $3 billion/6.5 billion shares on issue = 46 cents per share special dividend. The remaining amount 30 cents would be 'left' in the market cap. Once the dividend is paid out, the stock price would decrease by the dividend amount (more or less). Its a nil-sum game.
In the Product licensing example. Again many variables here, royalty metrics, geographical scope, exclusive or non-exclusive, IP protection etc.
But likely an upfront cash amount (refer to above how that would be treated) and then terms around licensing as above which could be valued but like with any business, many different opinions around valuing it e.g. risk-adjusted net present value. Rest assured any potential future revenues will be priced into the share price. In the same way CBA holders aren't handcuffed into holding CBA shares because they'll pay dividends next year, neither are you. Not sure what you mean about quick buck dump though.
If they did do a deal for Her-Vaxx it may be the case that IMU continues to be an incubator for cutting-edge therapies and work towards that, buying early-stage therapies and using the amazing team already assembled to continue doing so. Or they could get absorbed into a big pharma like the Genentech Roche situation. Leslie did say IMU is turning into a mini Genentech.
Im very interested to see how the B-Cell + Mimotopes platform will work from a deal perspective. The most recent big deals (Immunomedics bought by Gilead for $21 Billion, Seagen bought by Pfizer for $43 Billion) in the pharma space have been around anti-body drug conjugates (ADCs) which include monoclonal antibodies + chemo payload. And although none of our B-Cell platforms have been approved yet, there is huge scope for the platform to grow to the depth owned by the Immunomedics and Seagan in a few years with the mimotope platform. For anyone requiring a refresher, IMU owns a platform that can create Her-vaxx and PD1-Vaxx type therapies for all cancers with known markers.
I believe that CF33 platform (although very early in human trials) is deemed successful in patients and does what we all hope it will that deal discussion will dwarf any deals done with Her-Vaxx or PD1-Vaxx on their own. Big Pharma are looking for curative therapies now and they have circa $1.4 trillion worth of deal-making power. With the Seagen deal dropping just a few weeks ago, the M&A space will likely heat up very soon.
In any case, a lot of options and a lot of possible different outcomes. The discussion around IMU potentially going for NASDAQ listing means there's still quite a way in the journey yet, or else why bother?
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