Ok, using a DCF method assuming the scoping study parameters of average pre-tax cash margins of approximately US$150 million per annum over 14 year mine life.
Plus using an assumed $0.90 USD/AUD exchange rate and a discount rate of 8% per annum yields a DCF project value of $1.028 billion AUD in todays dollars.
What you need to consider is the CAPEX required of $245m USD and how this is funded (ie debt / equity) and how this impacts on additional shares on issue. Also, this is the base case scoping study assuming production of 4mtpa. What if we are able to double production assuming additional reserves allow? = project value increase.
As you can see if we make it to production, the company's value (market cap) should be well in excess of the current market cap of $250m. Projecting a future share price will be dependant upon the final number of shares on issue among other variables.
Should be able to nail down a value with greater confidence when the feasibility study is complete.
This is of course IMHO only, there are many ways to skin a cat, Ive skinned mine with a spoon. Cheers to holders.
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