How much do you think of the fair SP for LTR to be acquired, page-114

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05/04/23

09:49

Post #: 67141807
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Originally posted by Bluegoose: ↑

I don't hold LTR and hope you all get a huge premium, or go mining and enjoy the dividends.

But to suggest that LTR is worth the same as PLS (which I do hold) and that it will outperform and be worth more than PLS in the next decade or so, is pretty outrageous and ill-informed.

By the time LTR get into any meaningful production and sales, PLS will have banked the entire current Market Cap of LTR in CASH!!!.

And by the time LTR get into any meaningful production, PLS will be producing 680ktpa (actually 700+ I suspect) and well on their way to 1 million, and producing LiOH from a downstream JV.

LTR is lucky in the sense that it is a more manageable size for a T/O than PLS which is too big for an ALB to consider. So for that reason, LTR can get to the current half of PLS market cap, or maybe a smidge more.

But intrinsically I value PLS at around 3 X the market cap of LTR. 1 X for the cash generation in the next 18 months, and 2 X for the resource, production volumes and downstream investments / margin capture. LTR are the beneficiaries of the very good work the PLS board have done in creating the BMX and achieving much higher prices in the market and creating a price discovery mechanism. PLS are the leaders in the industry and have even better management than LTR believe it or not.

I have also read on this thread that people believe the LTR costs per tonne of Spodumene concentrate will be well below PLS. Let's just see about that. Whilst a higher grade, LTR are starting from scratch in a high inflation and wage environment, and no doubt will need to pay up to get the right people. I would not be surprised at all when I see that LTR costs are in fact higher than PLS but time will tell. Those flotation circuits are not exactly easy to get to nameplate quickly either so there are operational challenges ahead despite what people think. I've held 3 companies that have been through the commissioning of Spodumene mines and it's not always smooth sailing.

Personally, I believe PLS is better value on current market caps (and I topped up PLS today), but nevertheless I am cheering for a huge result and larger premium for LTR as it simply means PLS has more and more catch-up to do to maintain a 2 to 3 X LTR value.

Hopefully ALB have some more gas in the tank to increase their bid in due course.

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Hi Bluegoose, this topic is about the fair SP for LTR to be acquired, not a comparision between LTR and PLS or others, one thing we all agree that they are both great.

LTR Price at posting: $2.59 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last 88.5¢		Change 0.015(1.72%)		Mkt cap ! $2.146B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
88.0¢	92.5¢	88.0¢	$10.67M	11.88M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	163847	88.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
89.0¢	7802	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	163847	0.885
22	312884	0.880
7	276942	0.875
15	588090	0.870
6	53274	0.865

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.890	7802	1
0.895	5000	1
0.900	74257	9
0.905	67500	3
0.910	12100	2

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How much do you think of the fair SP for LTR to be acquired, page-114

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How much do you think of the fair SP for LTR to be acquired, page-114

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