Can we have some discussion around what we could expect in 2023/24 season if the latest announcement and commentaries from learned people are as good as they say Hickory is. The question for me (and all of us) is whether to sit tight, accumulate or exit 88E. Let me kick off with a few points, please feel free to agree, oppose, add and dissect et al.
1) What is the earliest time for flow testing? surely it can be done in early winter once ice is formed and thick enough. They have enough time to plan and organise rig etc. right?
2) What is the cost of flow testing? does anyone know?
3) 88E had cash of $14M before the last capital raising of $17.5M (less costs). Roughly $6M annual costs of admin and wages.
4) Hickory cost was estimated at USD 13.5M (88E component USD 10M). Latest announcement says the cost is still 13.5M despite the drill terminating before the planned TD of 12,500ft. Not sure why?
5) Do we agree that 88E will require another CR before the flow test? The last CR was for 1.8B shares @9.5c with 20% discount. Current SP of 10c @20% discount would mean 8c CR issue price, means issuing 2B shares to raise around AUD 16M.
6) If we say with the positrive flow test, market cap rises to match PANR, SP will equal around 1.5c! That is not flattering isn't it.
The questions are
1) is the market sentiment overly suppressed and therefore the current valuation is unreasonably low? If yes, what is the upside? (I have seen a few valuations based on bbl and oil price ...... is there a consensus?
2) is there a possibility for 88E to out perform PANR? whose acreage is better? whose discovery is better so far?
3) at the moment oil price is so unpredictable (52 week price range $58 - $123), but supply will remain volatile due to geo-political issues.
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