The interesting view that the "share price is an illusion" (Fitzroy) is increasingly looking to be rather illusory. Recent contributions from posters, who appear to understand market mechanics and niceties, have been enlightening.
I do not think any, probably none, of the forum participants would be surprised that there may well be operators who do not play according to the rules. Indeed, it will be fascinating to see what action, if any, the authorities will take because of water-tight evidence (claims only at this stage) put before them.
Enough said.
Much more important and pressing are other issues. They include what is the risk/reward equation suggesting, and the share price reaction post the institutional share offer and ahead of the completion of the retail offer.
In the wake of the institutional offer, the share price encouragingly is now trading at more than 5% above the retail offer price. It could be argued though that share price performance has been more than a touch disappointing, post the offer announcement.
An opportunistic share offer, with a marginal dilutive effect, has occurred against a markedly improved backdrop. The gold price has broken noticeably through the psychologically significant $2000 mark. Moreover, Kingsgate is now well-placed both on the financial and operating fronts to move forward strongly. Meanwhile, positive news developments continue to unfold, with more likely to come soon. Indigestion, from an increased number of shares in issue, on the institutional side, may have exerted downward pressure on the share price.
Positive developments, transformation of the balance sheet and gold producing operations, suggest the downside risks are substantially reduced. Furthermore, prospects are glowing even more brightly with the gold price surging (even if it were to trade in a lower band in then future, which is not the way things are shaping up, it would still provide a positive background). On the downside, the political risk of investing in Thailand remains, although events may point to an improving scenario.
Seemingly, the risk/reward ratio now suggests the reward side heavily outweighs the risk downside compared to what it was in the not-too-distant past.
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