Having just gone through a takeover of NWE by MIN for Perth Basin gas assets I have a little experience in the process with CE. MIN can only cross 20% line by making a formal takeover offer, his minions would have it all planned paperwork in folders on servers.
I expect it will be a scrip offer equivalent to 60c at MIN current share price...1:130. I hope for more, and could be happily surprised setting the bar low.
MIN had NWE pretty much to itself, given NWE had only a 20% share of shared leases, and the synergy in members of boards in both camps. First bid was a 30% increase over pre-bid share price... NWE put up a slight defence, MIN increased scrip his bid 5% and the NWE board caved. Then it has been a 4+month battle of attrition on a slew of minor shareholders of varying bravados. Some said would never sell. Now they are. I expect to see the same on ESS thread. The turning point for me with NWE was when major shareholders with industry experience accepted and pushed just over the 50%.
ESS is different with TLEA starting the bid, and ESS board caving at this first step. The biggest difference now is competition of 2 bidders.
The ESS board may have been hoping deep down by effectively triggering a sale, me being kind to ESS board, this would force a competitors hand like MIN. And here we are. MIN and TLEA competing for ESS, dream outcome.
MIN has to bid high enough now to beat TLEA, go for a knock out blow or just creep up until they buckle. I think Chris is a creeper. He will try 60c and throw in the idea of rollover relief, which is attractive if you like holding MIN shares. Have to
reach 80% from acceptance for rollover relief. TLEA can't offer rollover relief as joint venture cash offer, IGO could alone with it's shares.
I expect TLEA to counter offer, they would probably try 70c in cash and hope MIN shares fall in the interim. MIN may then try 75c as this maybe it? TLEA may stop...who knows. This may run for 4 months like NWE takeover. So don't rush you decision process.
Good luck
I could have just written a small piece of fiction, but I was happy to sit back and watch NWE takeover until I was sure I got close to the best result....expect the same for ESS. The 11Mt at about 1.2% easily pay for takeover, but for these large companies they will rip the futile ground for much more lithium...
The tenements have hardily been explored under ESS with minimal resourcing in a serious WA pegmatite channel.
