Relevant Media, page-2448

This is a very good listen to industry players in the REE space and the real world issues they are facing.

I particularly found the commentary from the guy in the blue shirt (apologies - I did try and read his name badge but without success) very insightful and perhaps a clue as to the struggles of ASM and the KMP in particular. Around the 24min mark he explains the importance of securing the oxide supply in the overall supply chain. ASM are trying to establish a highly disruptive REE end to end supply chain outside China. Although KMP can supply REE metals to those ex-China buyers, the buyers first need assurance that KMP is a reliable long term supplier before ditching other suppliers inside the dominant Chinese supply chain. That in turn means KMP has to secure suitable long term oxide supply agreements from outside the China supply chain. Dubbo of course is intended to be the primary source but until it is funded, ASM are looking elsewhere, hence the Vietnam partnering we are seeing. But all China needs to do to stop KMP as a competitor is sow enough doubt around those alternative oxide sources such that metal buyers are scared to make the jump. As you would imagine that any metal buyer that does make the jump to ex-China REE supply will immediately be blacklisted for the future. So its a big risk that ASM need to mitigate before any serious volume buyers step up. That in part may explain why KMP has been concentrating on TiCu, as that market does not carry so much oxide supply risk? And why Dubbo is in fact so critical to the success of the KMP, whereas until now I saw them as discrete businesses and the KMP could flourish with Dubbo.

Any thoughts?