think this is a re-rate over the next 12-18mo once the hedge book expiration nears (jun24, the last hedging rolls off)...
at today's gold price of c. A$2900-3000/oz the 25% of our production (30k qtr) is losings us >A$150m p.a.
bottom line for me is - once june-24 rolls round, this should be doing around A$200m fcf (assuming conservatively that they continue to spend A$250-300m p.a. on growth/exploration capital)... that's around 12% FCF yield on an EV c. A$1.6bn. If you up that to a lower capex figure say A$300m you're pushing close to 20% FCF yield.
Question will be around how they will fund McPhillys.. i suspect post Jun-24. Half of that FCF would be preserved for funding McPhillys, but still plenty of room for a 5%ish div yield and cap upside of 20+% in my view from today
Ann: March Quarter and FY23 Guidance Update, page-21
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