Hi @Koala1959
Fair enough and perhaps you will be proven correct.However, I believe that ... yes MIN could sit still and wait (assuming TLEA fails to make another offer) and hope the price drops back. But that also assumes we are in a stagnant lithium supply demand circumstance.
There is any amount of information pointing to a dramatic structural shortage of raw material in the supply chain going out many years as discoveries and mines take years to deliver their product to market. OEMs have been committing $billions toward the compulsory switch towards EVs etc. I need not elaborate.
MIN has a management that knows all this and indeed Chris Ellison has been quoted as saying something like "those who own the rock are king". Obviously TLEA thought that too and want to consolidate the regional supply. Therefore MIN has every reason to quickly bed down this acquisition while markets are soft. He knows this is temporary and is known to act decisively, so that's why I am expecting an offer that will recognise the value and allow him to get on with business.
At the end of the day, this is not a big acquisition! Even at $0.75 per share we are only talking around $200m. I think it is quite strategic for MIN and is a great fit for their business. Being shovel ready is perfect for a company in the mining services business and so they will get it happening. If anyone doubts their ability to deliver projects, just look at the rapid progress with their Onslow Iron project that was only FID'd in July last year.
Talking my own book, I think MIN will move expeditiously assuming there is not a fight, and to avoid that, they will make an offer they think will get them over the line quickly. All in my opinion only.
Regards
DF
