Seems a reasonable analysis. On the funding side, the minimum holding of the seller note in the ZMT is pretty much at its limit now (which is partly why they needed a capital raising to buy back and cancel a portion of the SGX convertible). The next key moment is probably the refinancing of the 2017-1 facility. This is asset backed and has various tranches that pay progressively higher coupons as you take on more of the credit risk. The key piece from a cost perspective is the size of the slices, ie where they cut in, and the spreads over bills. If credit quality is weaker, investors will demand higher spreads and more protection from junior tranches, increasing average financing costs to ZIP. If credit quality is improving, then it goes the other way at refinancing time.
It's getting rather late to refinance, so my guess is that conditions haven't been great and they're hoping for a better level, but soon out of time. My best guess is that it will be refinanced without any problem, but possibly at a slightly higher average spread than previously. .
ZIP Price at posting:
53.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)