SYA 5.88% 3.2¢ sayona mining limited

General Discussion Topics, page-96576

  1. 1,879 Posts.
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    FYI-

    All very rough..

    PLL just release their DFS for the Tennesee hydroxide plant-

    US$809 million capex, which could blow out to over a billion.....completed roughly 2026

    for 30,000tonnes hydroxide with an NPV of US$ 2.5 billion...this is just a hydroxide plant!!!

    Its feed is purchased from 3rd parties.....so subject to sc6 price fluctuations...they state NAL and Atlantic, but we all know wont be from NAL, or if it is, will be minimal.


    NAL Carbonate plant-Capex US$300milion... for 25000 carbonate....so NPV???

    Current....SYA NAL NPV...even at US$1352 sc6 price is AU$2.2 billion = US$1.483 for just the mine and sc6

    We must reduce this NPV to a cost neutral facility/profitless to feed the carbonate plant, so around AU$1.5 billion or US$1.1B...pretty much replacement cost bricks and mortar

    NAL Carbonate plant NPV US$2 .083, using metrics for 25000 carbonate, and PLL's US$2.5B for 30000 hydroxide as a base.

    We must also account for our feedstock at cost, as we have reduced this from the NAL's current NPV

    2.083B plus adding in the discounted price feedstock....dependant on demand, we will pay around US$700 for our feed, as other pure refiners will pay US$3500 plus....so our carbonate profit will be 80% greater than a refiner purchasing from a 3rd party.
    Hard to calculate.....NPV should climb roughly to US2.6B for the carbonate plant with cost price feedstock.
    Eg....For 25000 tonnes carbonate/hydroxide feedstock is 200,000 sc6= 140,000,000 at NAL v 700,000,000 for a refiner purchasing on market.
    This is why SC6 sets the refined product cost curve.


    NPV NAL = US$3.7 mine, concentrator and carbonate plant=

    NAL NPV AU$5.5 billion.....with US$400-500 million capex in total mine, concentrator and carbonate...

    I hope you people now understand why we are manipulated and beaten down....
 
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