Cashflow inputs

I have been following HHR threads and there are some great posts/posters. Is anyone else running a a cashflow/DCF on HHR phase 1 yet? I am interested in some of the inputs you are using.

$/therm- 81 p/thermal is the best case HHR use in the April presentation. (well below forecast prices!)

Operating expenses- Going through HHR releases they state these are commercial in confidence. The BPC Research report from last November had 7.6 million pounds fixed opex and 12p/thermal variable opex. These were based off the PetrofacGreenfield Concept Select Report from 2021,

On these inputs I get a project NPV of $435. (worth noting HHR model is at $380m but they account for the free carry and EPL outside of their cashflow whereas I include it)

I get an enterprise value of $476m (0.17cps) (HHR forecast is $614m, $0.22cps)

HHR is in an enviable position to take advantage of the "transformatonal" tax breaks on offer which really underwrite the project. Rockrose will also be pushing hard to get development underway to take advantage of these tax breaks. I don't know if I will ever see another project with a gross capex of 351m pounds and a net capex of around $30m pounds.

Capex overruns are sheltered by the tax concessions and operating expenses are relatively static so the cashflow really turns on the acheived price of gas.

Project NPV SP
At 108p/thermal (current price) $552m 0.21
At 88p/thermal (forecast) $435 0.17
At 74p/therm $358 0.14

I realise that there is a fair amount of churn right now affecting the SP but IMO there is significant value to be unlocked. Be very interested in how others see it,