FA & General Banter, page-20428

Not surprising to see the delayed Spodumene SC6 price drop in this latest Fastmarket's publication and as we've seen pretty widely reported a noted bounce for the Lithium chemicals spot pricing. Table courtesy Rodney Hooper (RK Equity) on Twitter, remaining work is my own leveraging LTR presentations repeatedly showing the relative growth in SC6 versus Hydroxide spot sales.




Looking at what this would mean for LTR projected revenues, well the full story isn't the US$4,050 from the table above, but more than likely the Spodumene SC6 to Hydroxide percentages from the spot markets over the past full financial quarter.

So don't take lose heart over this next chart just yet.




The real story begins with the next chart and the good news is the horizontal green line - the percentage SC6 sold for relative to the average Hydroxide spot for the last quarter is 9.22%. The average Hydroxide spot for the January quarter was US$76,200 giving LTR a hypothetical for contract sales this quarter of US$7026/t. A very nice place to be, next quarter we will see the effect of Q1's sell off - early call it will be north of US$5,000/t for SC6. With quarter sales of $5K and $7K in production then annual EPS will land at around AU$0.70 or so.




Will close repeating caveats from earlier posts on this topic. We don't know LTR's offtake pricing formulas, I've derived the above from LTR's market statements, presentations and comments from those in the industry with knowledge on the topic of hard rock pricing. As such, these views are my own and do not constitute financial advice. DYOR.