I should note that I have more invested in Hammer than Carnaby although I will benefit from them both going up.
I don't think comparing Kalman to Carnaby's deposits is easy because the Kalman orebody relies upon Molybdenum to substantially enhance project economics, it is exposed to Molybdenum price fluctuations both up and down and Carnaby's deposits are not. However I think you may be correct that the updated Kalman resource using todays price is likely to be greater in copper equivalent tonnes than the sum of the Carnaby's deposits as a maiden JORC resource. That does not consider deposit economics. It does not necessarily follow that having a greater copper equivalent tonnes in the ground means the company is worth more, CYM with its 1 million tonnes of copper at Maroochydore (at around 1% Cu) is a prime example. Caravel has the largest copper tonnage in the ground in Australia with around 2.5 million tonnes but is only 0.25% Cu.
I have no idea what shares prices will do other than the market sentiment, commodity prices and individual company exploration results all play a part. A good discovery when the market and commodity prices are tanking and it will not do much other than make a brighter future when these factors recover.
Hammer has a lot of good prospects and quite a few with good drill results that have been left before closing out the potential in my view, this could be purely about target size, for example a strategy of >20-50 million tonnes possible or walk away.
Whilst I agree that collaboration over the Mount Hope area would be advantageous for Carnaby and Hammer I understand a reluctance to join forces until the extent of respective resources is known and can be properly accounted for in any joint venture or sale etc. I don't agree that Carnaby can't get any ore out without Hammer or vice-versa. The boundary dispute will be largely irrelevant because no matter what happens the ore (
if Hammer ever bother to drill to demonstrate the ore is on their ground - why have they not already had the rigs out?) will be held by both parties and neither will be able to dig a really deep pit without encroachment on the other's ground. It is likely to be more expensive for Carnaby or Hammer to go it alone because it may force underground mining sooner than desired. I have no idea why Carnaby shareholders would be nervous and I have seen no indication of this, the boundary position won't change the fact that ore will be on both sides of it. IMHO Hammer will only have a case if they can prove an error of law was made and it will be a long and expensive process to prove this. The case is not against Carnaby so it will not have any costs on the line, just a portion of the ore.
We don't know for sure that the ore is in Hammer's ground even though I believe it will be the case on the NW trending BinnaBurra lode southeast extension under the existing pits in HMX ground. Hence my call for drilling here. Are they waiting for us to all die of boredom or is legal advice driving the company?
@alexei ii there is no doubt Carnaby is proving up the geology and ore types/geometry and making it easier for Hammer. Without Carnaby Hammer would not have even been thinking about this area. It is hard to imagine Carnaby as an "exhausted enemy" given it has been having regular exploration success, has over $30million in the bank (HMX has $3million I think) and has a market cap 2-3 times that of Hammer. Neither Hammer nor Carnaby should see each other as enemies. Exploration success is hard enough without that overlay and the advantages of working together are clear although the timing and structure of this is not.
I think to take Kalman forward will require $15-20 of drilling to enhance the resource category and conduct feasibility studies excluding project development finance. I think the work Hammer is doing is priming the deposit for the entry of a well funded partner to take things forward. On the other hand Kalman is probably the right size for Hammer, how to fund it without issuing lots of shares is the question. Float it off, JV, merger with well funded neighbour? Who knows?
The things that are likely to move the Hammer share price this year include the Kalman resource upgrade which should be substantial given the commodity prices changes should allow a much greater tonnage to be included with a lower cut-off grade. The Bullrush prospect is potentially of scale and could move the dial. The best chance of good drilling results seems to be over in the Carnaby neck of the woods where they have shown the way and made it easier. I have largely discounted anything much coming out if the MIA JV, perhaps a bonus here?
I agree with
@Dragone64 price target of 15-20 cents but have no idea when. My fingers are crossed on that and some positive news will be required combined with markets and commodity prices holding up.
DYOR. Not investment advice and definitely not advice on share prices, I have no idea what they will do.
