Red
Thank for the report - what you have laid out is valid data (Nov 2022) and provides a perspective that all shareholders would do well to consider. This is a "non holder" post which is positive in that it brings new information / presents older information in a structured way and applies a reasoned argument for the material presented.
The only obversions I would make are that I do believe that there is scope to increase the resource on the leases that AUZ has which has the potential to improve the economics of the project further.
I have kept an eye on Sunrise. I'm not sure about Friedland and don't really know the remainder of the directors so can't comment there.
I have no doubt LGE is looking at other projects here and overseas - they would be silly if they were not looking at various projects.
Responding to your conclusions:
- I would argue that LG are looking around. I agree but that does not mean that they do not necessarily want Sconi in their portfolio
- I would argue that LG know of all three projects in Australia. I agree I would also think they are aware of all potential projects in Australia and also many overseas
- I would argue that LG are keeping their options open with the Sconi offtake at no cost Insurance. Also do not disagree they are keeping their options open but I would also argue if they concluded Sconi was going nowhere they would depart - what is the point of "having insurance" if they not consider in the right circumstances they would fully commit to Sconi. By now LGE/AUZ would have a solid understanding of what each wants from a collaborative partnership - the fact that LGE have not departed surely means they could see in the right circumstances their progressing with AUZ.
- I would argue that LG are very smart operators, they would not fund the worst project when they can fund the best project for the same money per ton.Don't disagree that they will want to minimise the cost of what they commit to - ,There are other aspects in any decision like the one LGE will or will not make, some things might be infrastructure proximity, sovereign risk, geography of the mine location, potential resource extension and a whole raft of other potential items/issues some of which might partially offset cost considerations.
- I would argue that LG are waiting for Sconi management to obtain funding elsewhere without their help, and at that point they will gladly accept the offtake without risk. - You could be correct though I would be stunned if by this stage LGE think AUZ can fund Sconi without significant help from a big brother like them - I think the collaborative partnership AUZ are talking about will inevitably have a solid financial / support component from LGE if anything progresses.
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