LTR 1.14% 86.5¢ liontown resources limited

LTR: Short squeeze coming for shorters - 2nd highest likelihood in all ASX, page-2050

  1. 784 Posts.
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    I didn't think there would be a squeeze, until I did the maths for my post below and started working out averages now that we have some data to work with.

    If you check share price rise vs shorts, it's pretty clear that as they cover they are using algorithms to try and reduce the impact on the Share Price, but these algos only can do so much when there isn't much supply, so we are seeing the share price rise slowly and steadily (I wouldn't call 3% gain a short squeeze sorry) as shorts reduce.

    someone who is better at maths than me, should be able to chart plot and extrapolate the share price gain since the day after the big rise, but I will give it a crack here. (Please double check my maths)

    132 million shorts, SP close @ $2.59 - 29 March 23
    126.6 million shorts, SP close @ 2.73 - 1 May 23

    = 5.4 million shorts covered = 14c SP rise.

    so theoretically if everything continues with no new news and no big shareholder buy ins or sells, to get to a normal short amount of say 1% of holdings, which would be 22 million shares, they need to cover another 104 million shares.

    If they continue at the same rate, where 1 share covered equals .00000259 dollars of SP rise, then by the time they cover another 102.6 million shares, the SP will have risen by another $2.66. if the rate continues at the same pace, the time above was 19 trading days averaging 284,210 a day, so it will be another 713 trading days to finish covering if they keep up this rate I don't think they will want to hold for that long, I especially don't like their risk profiles of holding the shorts in negative equity for that long, and plus there is the actual cost of paying for the share loan.

    All in all, I think the shorts are screwed.




 
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