1. The cost of raw materials is fluctuating wildly, and I don't think we can definitively predict there will be say, 20% inflation in the price of iron. Iron ore for example on the 5-year chart is all over the place. Waiting might be the best thing really. Labor costs will likely be higher, but frankly who knows. The DFS is usually made with a margin of safety.
2. Delays; I have 2026 as my margin of safety, but for a small mine and with a lot of political willpower things can go faster than expected.
3. Debt terms: To my knowledge we do not know anything about the terms of debt financing from governmental banks, save that a single offfer from one of them was up to $320m USD. If the debt:equity ratio is 70:30, then for 480m usd, at current stock prices you are looking at 150m shares. However, I think that due to the national/international interest of onshoring battery production, the terms will be quite a bit better. MT has hinted as much in dissolving the Mitsui MoU. Talga is no longer considering a joint venture as a means of funding the project. And MT has often and repeatedly stated he would rather give project equity rather than talga equity in any financing. The European Raw Materials Alliance says only that it will "Define case-specific financing strategies and mechanisms". So, who knows? Sweden has an interest in getting things going, lots of taxes for 20+ years if it goes through. Why would they not loan some money to help get things started?
4. 200m seems pessimistic, but by all means write it in for your margin of safety.
5. US expansion? Hold your horses. The 3-5 year time horizon for MT on Talnode SI is a germany production facility. The 3-5 year for Sweden is just getting the 480M DFS up and running with 24ktpa, which has all the machinery pre-installed to hit 100-110 ktpa anode. To my knowledge there are no serious talks about expansion to the US, save perhaps selling talnode SI to US automotive companies like GM or Ford. For now, lets just tackle the Sweden permit while MT pushes for a DFS of talnode SI.
Please if anyone has more informed opinions please don't let me be the primary rebuttal.
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