Cant see much difference in Melb and Syd one wont hold up and the other crash imo, both same boat. Back in 70's property didn't move much for 10yrs I think (??)
so if rates stay roughly the same (cant drop too much if AUD falls too), credit approvals have to drop with less risk and higher unemployment, bank wholesale costs could go up though, not really down = even tighter or dearer borrowing.
and house prices fall a bit (cant have big world drop and they dont at least fall a bit being conservative, they dropped ), bit of panic sets in and markets get hit a bit then dont move (in general they get oversold before stabilising a little higher dont they)
Even 20% drop is 150k off 700k house, think that might be conservative if stocks fall big worldwide as predicted by many cycles etc with lows from mid next year or 2012/13 but lets say "shortage" or similar holds some truth.
So those highly leveraged and recent negative equity holders sell forced or scared, into bad market, maybe 5-10% drop (might be oversold bit that comes back?)
so todays 700k = max (very conservative) 530/570k which could be the same for 5-10yrs? some drop more maybe some less
Cant see better than that, could be worse? rates could rise if inflation, doller was in 40's during 1970's I think?
Last years economy that survived was only just, and surprised by hanging on, and was the only one not to tank, now Gov policy is unreliable carry trade wont rush back in like last time.
I've got a place and not buying so would prefer to be positive but just cant see how it can be. Don't know any respected forecasts for great stockmarkets next cpl yrs and they lead property as a generalisation. No chance I'm a buyer now thats 4 sure. Best case buying you get a great bargain and it doesn't lose too much unless something above is out of whack? Is it? but if downturn does happen, and its started as/when predicted.
Thats my bear case - bulls whats your case? and big bad bears? (think this teddy bears case) Unless world economy vastly improves in very near term, or you might believe in recovery?
