It'a hilarious how traumatized people are by the last capital raise.
BCB is aggressively ramping up production and no banks are willing to fund safe growth for ESG reasons (= this will heavily restrict industry supply going forward). The fact that there hasn't been a CR in a long time shows mgmt is doing everything to get through the cash bottlenecks. Q2 should be the last tight quarter.
Even if there was one last CR before BCB turns into a cash printing machine in Q3, why would it be sth to be concerened about?
BCB is now running 3 mines, the 1st module of the wash olant is fully operational with the 2nd to follow later this year, and the company is about to release working capital trapped in some 500k ROM stockpiles built over the last few months. Your money didn't go to waste and the execution risk is behind us.
The main concern going forward is price. Pricing in Q2 tends to be seasonally low and Queensland mines just flooded the market with tons they couldn't ship during the rainy season. China had a 1 week national holiday and is probably digesting the 1st wave of covid reopening. The politburo has announced they will continue to aggressively support the economy.
We are in a recessionary environment and yet HCC prices of USD of 250 are way above production cost of USD 100 for the Burton mines. There should be a good chance for HCC to hit new record highs soon. And why rule out a possible improvement of the QLD royalty situation over the next couple of years?
Lastly - remember we will be producing and washing some 6m ROM tons p.a. from Q1/24 onwards. Now compare our valuation with other met coal players. Aside from ST price risk, we should actually be worried about getting taken out at at ridiculously low AUD 0.30 or so by Stanmore, Glencore, Fitzroy, AMR, or the likes.
BCB is a keeper.
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