THE Rudd government would be wiped out if an election were held today with the latest Herald/Nielsen poll showing the Coalition ahead of Labor for the first time in more than four years and disillusioned voters flocking to the Greens and independents.
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The poll shows the Coalition leading Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 53 per cent to 47 per cent, an increase of 3 percentage points to the Coalition in a month.
This represents a swing of 5.7 per cent to the Coalition since the last election which, if replicated uniformly at an election, would strip Labor of 29 seats.
Disturbingly for the government, only 55 per cent of voters now believe it will win the next election, a fall from 71 per cent only two months ago.
One-third, or 33 per cent, think the Coalition will win, up from 19 per cent two months ago
Disenchantment with both main parties is at its highest level in almost a decade, resulting in the Greens recording a poll-record primary vote high of 15 per cent, and independents and others recording a combined 9 per cent.
Labor's primary vote is now 10 points lower than at the last election but only 1 point of that has gone to the Coalition.
Since the last poll a month ago, Labor's primary vote has slumped 4 points to 33 per cent - the lowest for Labor since just after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks - while the Coalition's primary vote nudged up 1 point to 43 per cent.
The only downside for the opposition was Tony Abbott's approval rating plunging over the last month to the same level as Mr Rudd's.
''The opposition's biggest problem is that their leader is just as unpopular, if not more so, than the Prime Minister, and so voters are looking elsewhere,'' the Nielsen pollster John Stirton said. ''Having said that, a winning lead is a winning lead and I'm sure the opposition will take it.''
The poll of 1400 voters was taken from Thursday night to Saturday night and follows a month dominated by debate on the mining tax.
As Mr Rudd prepares to go to Perth this week to meet mining executives and hold a community cabinet meeting, the poll shows Labor is losing the debate.
A month ago, just after the tax was announced, the poll found 44 per cent supported it and 47 per cent opposed it. The latest poll finds support has fallen to 41 per cent while opposition has risen to 49 per cent.
Also, almost two-thirds of voters support the Coalition's policy to reintroduce the ''Pacific solution'' - the processing of asylum seekers in another country.
Mr Rudd, who once enjoyed stratospheric popularity, continues to fall from favour.
His approval rating fell 4 points to 41 per cent and his disapproval rating rose 3 points to 52 per cent.
Mr Abbott's approval rating fell 5 points, also to 41 per cent, and his disapproval rose 6 points to 51 per cent. Each leader is as unpopular as the other.
Mr Rudd's lead as preferred prime minister continues to erode. His rating fell 4 points to 49 per cent while Mr Abbott moved up 1 point to 39 per cent.
The findings confirm the theory in Labor that its greatest hope for the election is Mr Abbott's unpopularity. However, Labor's primary vote is now so low that even if it received 100 per cent of Greens preferences, it would still lose.
If preferences were allocated as they fell at the last election, the Coalition would be ahead on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent. Based on how voters told the poll they would allocate preferences, the Coalition is ahead by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.
The Greens leader, Bob Brown, said given the rise in support for his party, he should be allowed to participate in the leaders' debate during the election campaign.
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