Deciphering Lynas, page-399

As there there has been some chatter re NdPr pricing, I took some time to trawl through my data. Current 'lower' prices are (IMO) just temporary, and although it will affect our revenue, probably less than some think (on ignore, but I'm sure Mr negativity is around yelling 'P/E!! Doom and gloom!!').

I put together a current 'price model' from some of my data (privy some paid-for data):

A. Monthly comparison between our NdPr sales price (contracted) and spot price.
B. Moving three month average of the same data.
C. NdPr moving average spot price shifted forward one month.
In all charts, 'ASP' = average selling price; 'NdPr AUD' = NdPr spot price in AUD


As you can see, although there is a correlation in the monthly, it's a bit choppy (a). Generating a 3-month average generates best fit model (b). To further improve the fit, the NdPr price (3 month av) was shifted forward 1 month (c).

Conclusions: a significant portion of our contracted NdPr has a price model something akin to a 1 month delay of a 3-month average (spot) price. The current 'low' spot price will have some, but limited, impact if the current uptrend in the spot price continues.

Currently, we remain well over AU$100/kg. As of today, spot price is ~AU$88/kg. My guess (!) is we will probably see a long term average around the AU$130-150 range (i.e. in the very profitable range).

I'll update in a month or so if there is interest.

Not meant as investment advice. DYOR.