Thanks for that Onceover. I agree with your last point, that the market can stay uninterested longer than investors can stay solvent. It's one of my guiding principles. Problem is, it goes for companies as well as people. AZY could well enter administration when the money runs out by the end of the year. By that point, without a massive discovery and massive increase to their MRE, their ability to do a CR is doubtful. Forget the amount needed to build a mine, they'd struggle to raise the money for normal operations. At that point, insolvency becomes a threat.
To my thinking, the company is a sitting duck waiting for a takeover at a very low price. Even if they can somehow find enough money to keep going, a mine is very unlikely. A bank won't lend much to a micro-cap. The SPP component of a CR would be more under-subscribed than the last one, and I doubt a placement would do well either. It's in the interests of a suitor to see the company's price go down, so there’s at least one beneficiary of a sinking share price. Even if both were fully subscribed, the price at which a CR would need to be offered, together with the billions of new shares, would make the shares worthless.
I went into AZY on the basis of the potential of their resources and started selling when it became clear the market was not impressed. The trifecta of grade, depth and volume just isn't there, at least going by the current MRE. There are instances of two out of three, like good grade at good depth, but not the volume. Or good volume at good depth, but not the grade. Without all three together, I can't see a turnaround in the share price.
Anyway, my interest is now just for its own sake, as I'll be out of AZY – and all trading! – on 30 June. It's a milestone for me after 25 years of involvement in the stock market, but I've now achieved my financial goals. I'm not a superstitious man but it’s tempting fate not to stick to the plan. Many thanks for your comments throughout my stay in this stock.
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