MTM Chart, page-1101

Total capitulation?

Couple of days back I had written and also given reason why I got out of a lot of shares. That was my second exit, first one was when we rose I had let go my trading stocks. I had bought back some which I had to let go in second round.

So this was my assessment and what I wrote couple of days back -

For me, as I have been saying including yesterday, 15.5 was the key. Once it didn't look like holding in the morning, I wasn't sure of where the next support is and had to let go some of my shares. At this stage I have no clue except that I can see weakness. A good announcement could change that, but very dicey at this stage.

So not sure what the strong selling was about, but very determined sellers. Volume not very high but still decent. Its possible someone wanted to exit and they had a big holding. Lets see what's in store tomorrow. For those with courage and conviction, there could be some easy pickings to be done. For me, I want to first see where it settles and when the uptrend returns. As I have said its not possible to go against the market and one has to respect that - whatever one thinks.

Usually after a 3 day sell it should plateau/rebound, but it was looking like bottoming yesterday as well - and that didn't happen. So a waiting game and very uncertain situation as well. We don't know who is selling and how much more is left. Best we can hope it was couple of big holders who wanted to cash in - as they could see their profits decreasing in the last couple of days and sold in a panic to lock in. Next few days will tell. All the best.

So as mentioned above, I was already confused and not comfortable.

When today's announcement came, to be honest, I did not find anything that would make the SP go much higher. Lot of talks around Nickel laterite vs Nickel Sulphide. Although there is a good potential, but much more needs to happen before it would look like commercial. That was my take, though I am no expert in this area and I could be wrong. So I had to go with what my thinking, even if its wrong. Also I was already concerned about the selling which had happened on that massacre day. I was getting a feel that who ever were selling could have some inkling of what's to come. So I did not get a goof feel. I got out of most of my shares on open. I thought if it goes up, I will buy higher. My gut feel was it may not go much higher. But I was concerned about how much low it can go. So I took a calculated risk.

So now we have had 2 announcements and both have had very high selling. I agree with most here that none of the 2 announcements deserve such a beating. Both are with potential. Both did not give an announcement which market would latch to. Previous REE was not about ionic and this Ni was not about sulphide. So footing was not strong enough for a big rally, but maybe did not deserve the treatment we had.

So why did I get out of most of my shares in last few days? One thing I have learnt is to respect the market. I know each of us may have strong conviction. But my experience is that if market does not agree with you, its no point holding to conviction. Reason being, potential is something which cannot be quantified easily - so there is always a bias between what the holder thinks should be market cap versus what non-holders think. The truth may lie somewhere in between.

Many feel that this sell off may be triggered by some who want to scare and buy cheap. Its possible, but the extent looked more beyond manipulation, at least to me. I know many of you have bought today. I nearly pulled the trigger on 10.5 today, but then thought will wait and see. I thought the risk reward will be very good from here. But then I thought if it really has to go up, I can even buy higher around 12/12.5, but surety will be better. I tried closing auction also. I thought the sellers may try to push it down to 10c, then I thought I will buy. But when I saw it was not looking 10, I pulled out.

Anything positive for today? Closing auction was good. It means it did not finish on day's low. If it was manipulation etc then SP should rebound in coming days and weeks - so those buying would do well to pick up cheap shares.
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Monday could be interesting. Who is selling? Have they sold out? Was it manipulation? Pomme drilling to start soon. Most believe that is the main game and possibly company maker. These were supposed to be side shows, but if the side shows can be so volatile and exciting, the main game may blow off a lot of people. I will be there to play the main game, but want this saga to settle first. Just one month back we finished at 11c. So a total roller coaster 1 month has taken place. Under 10m market cap now. Risk reward should be good from here. Except some saying CR etc which should not happen as they raised recently, else risk reward should be good from here. May fall to 9s if someone is very serious, but upside on Pomme can be very big. All the best.