Hi Noomxx Well done on your switch in and out of coal. I switched in similar to you and am sitting on good capital gains and dividend income (mainly NHC and WDS). I haven't switched out yet and agree commodities are cyclical and there will be a time to switch out, and the optimum time may already have passed. We'll only know in hindsight unfortunately.
To assist my thinking I will now list why I am holding and why I should be selling:
Why Sell? - commodities are cyclical (after a boom comes a bust) - thermal coal hit all time highs ~US$450/t and has retraced significantly to ~US$160/t, and shows no signs of being near support. - taxes may go up.
Why Hold? - US$160/t is still much higher than the historical trading range of 50-80 with spikes to 110. - at FY2022 NHC has reported a significant chunk of forward sales contracts to July 2023 at ~400 and has often commented that they have a solid forward sales book (this is all from memory so don't nitpick on my terminology). Milner commented that they are surprised how long coal stayed up so high. - New Acland expansion will soon boost the business. - Bengalla expansion will also soon boost production. - there is huge underinvestment in fossil fuels, particularly thermal coal because the media and greenies hate it and politicians dance to their tune. - NHC coal is top quality whereas stories of China, Indonesia ramping up production is low quality coal. Russian coal was a threat to NHC but now bears a stigma. - US Federal Reserve has inflated money supply causing inflation so the current price of coal is relatively low. (I.e. 50/t ten years ago is how much today?). - the Milner's are smart and wealthy and still buying up here. - I have raised portfolio cash levels significantly and can't find anything to buy, what would I buy if I sold NHC. - dividend yield is very good and likely to be good for at least the next one, I.e. FY2023 final. - the share buybacks will soon have an impact. - Asia and other growing populations/economies are not following Europe and Australia who are strangling themselves with green and red tape. So fossil fuel usage will not slump. - in the event of EV's continuing to remain popular then gas and coal use will be required to charge them. - ESG investing is being found out as just another financial product/scam being sold to the sheeple.
Am sure there are more Pro's and Cons, please feel free to add them (got errands to do).
NHC Price at posting:
$5.11 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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