MTM (ASX) MTM Weekly Report

Originally posted by dc1234: ↑

Weekly Review REE Stocks - 19th May 2023

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future.Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks.The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This list contains 26 REE related stocks and no new additions this week.
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.This week I have a comparison between Psychology of Market Cycle, 2000 Nasdaq and current Nasdaq in the below. Interesting.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets -
This week SP 500 finally broke the trading range of 8 weeks or so. It has finally got to 4200 which I had said last week is the key
Up side - 4300/4350 should be in play now. Down side - As long as 4050 is held it should be fine. A good buffer now
Only issue is that the rally is still being led by big tech stocks. They are doing most of the lifting. Breadth participation is not good
Most risk-on assets including resources have not done very well. The difference between these stocks and big stocks is now huge in terms of gains and losses for last year or so
Most institutional hedge funds also not participating in the rally, in fact still trying to short in large numbers
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What will happen next week - General Markets:
Monday again could be just sideways for us. Lot of resource stocks were actually down on Friday in US - so some weakness is possible
Not much economic data that will give a very big move
Debt ceiling is the biggest catalyst which could make a big move in markets. In 2016 as US debt was downgraded, SP 500 had lost around 20% - though it was short lived
Seasonally May is not good month for stocks in US - (sell in May and go away). We have not seen anything like that in first three weeks. Will that change towards the end of month or we go against stats?
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Personally: My situation is same as last week, holding a fair few across a range.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
MTM came crashing down this week after 3 weeks of rise. On 17th April we finished at 11c. So we are back there after 1 month.
MTM is up 39% for the year
The REE sectors stocks I track is up 18% across 26 stocks for the year, drop from 25% last week
This week there was loss of 4% across 26 stocks, last week 6% gain - so balancing now
3 stocks did a new 52 week high this week - ENR, MEI, WA1
Although 4 stocks have gained over 100% for the year, 16 of the 26 stocks are red for the year - so all is not rosy and only specific stocks are doing well. Last week there were 5 stocks with 100% gain
The trend is clear - stocks doing well are doing better but other stocks are not able to catch up - a cue for people where to put their money
Also sector is very volatile. A lot of stocks in recent months have doubled, then came back and after some stagnation have moved back again - especially WA1, MEI, LIN, MTM, AR3 - so some stagnation now for AR3, MTM might go thru one as well
MTM is in very fragile and uncertain state for the short term. I expect some more volatility before stabilising. After stabilisation I expect it start rising. So a chance of one more scare. But anything can happen, so please dyor
Any announcement can have an effect of sp - both up and down

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.Something Interesting, especially for those not feeling very bullish:
This shows similarity in NASDAQ between 2000 dot com bust and where we are now. Also matching it against Psychology of Stock Market which many may have seen
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.On the left is 2000 Nasdaq at certain stage. On the right is where Nasdaq is now.
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.Here is diagram of Psychology of a Market Cycle. Look at where the Complacency is and compare with above figure.
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.This is again a figure which shows on left hand side 2000 dot com bust from the point of earlier figure - marked in. On the right is what some bears are saying we are heading. Check what happens from Complacency phase in Psychology of Market Cycle.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Expand

see the candlestick on 18/4 and 19/4
s/p rise up on nothing, and drop on nothing

I was trying to look for any negative that could cause the s/p to drop further during this weekend
but the more I look at it the more it shows we may see big reversal next week, with the help of announcement of drilling commence, imo.
and the only negative part is the ugly looking candlestick on the chart (both daily and weekly)

Pre-Pomme
EV range 2.204m~6.935m (H to L 4.731m) (20/2 and 1/3)

Post-tranche 1 placement
EV range 5.5336m~10.2m (H to L 4.6864m) (21/3 and 18/4)

Post-tranche 2 placement
EV range 7.224m~18.54m (H to L 11.316m) (19/5 and 15/5)

again, this shows that current s/p is way oversold
base on last two stage the highest EV to lowest EV the difference is around 4.7m
then the fair (lowest EV) should be highest EV 18.54m - 4.7m = 13.84m
then add back the cash of $3.6m and divide by 98.4m total SOI it give us s/p = 18c
so fair price range at current stage is 18-22c, and this match with the TA range.

say if someone bought in at 10c on Friday
he should make minimum +80% gain very soon (maybe next week?)
even at last closing price 11c, there's still +63% gain to be made
at 12c, +50% gain to be made
at 13c, +38% gain to be made
...etc

surely, this will attract some traders interest next week.