The invisible price (not advice at all)
1- Who paid the bill ?
When you buy and sell shares during several decades, you get use to see and note several common aspects to some industries.
Bio, for sure is a "capital killer" or a "rich maker" according with the company you choose, momentum you enter, and capability to hold under backwards situations.
Mesoblast, for sure (with ten years in a sequence trying approve a drug),went in a most amazing upsetting situations.
For at least 3 times we have a "large" partners, and for 3 times we lost them for many different reasons.
That created a price.
What price ? Mesoblast went alone all way with several 'CR" and suffering major set backs in the share price as result of such "suspicions" (if the technology really works? and have conditions to be approved?)
But if "we" paid alone such price during 10 years, and from now on ?
What happens with this "invisible price" I mentioned in the Title.
2- Partners that left us naked
From now on, if we achieve a success receiving our first approval, the first price will be ... We don't need anybody to share any "profits". Meaning... all gains will be 100% MSB. No Cephalon, No Teva, No Novartis, no whatever..
Well... be 100% beneficiary of the income is really an achievement. But here is the catch (positive) plenty people didn't become aware.
Large Pharma companies have money flowing every single day .Millions and millions and they don't have where to allocate, in safe and profitable manner. They are like the super-annuation funds, everyday comes millions and the board struggle where to invest to maximise shareholders funds.
Sounds easy task but it is not at all !
As soon, (if) we receive the approval... waste of time to look to the "annual" income... We will become target of at least 10 large Pharma's (that don't have appetite to risk with MSB innovative therapies),but they will have full appetite to look how much money this license can give the next 5-10-20 years..
That means... (just playing a game) if MSB will be capable to produce something that worth 100 million profit a year, to big Pharma eyes they will look 2-3 billion next 10-15-20 years and as such they are happy to load a huge amount to catch this big fish. For them is just a cash flow exercise.
If that is not enough a secondary aspect will make the top 10 jump like crazy in MSB.
The approval indicates that finally all aspects of the technology works ,its approvable, and as such, diseases like heart, back pain, Chrons, etc etc with size market several times larger than GVHD will become part of the much better risk management. Several [people mention that here, but what is the invisible price of that ?
Who read my posts know I'm not in a game to "over promise" and heat like usually some long term holders do, mainly because sounds to me most of the time just science-ficcion.
But "NOW" this is not the case at all...
is a rational exercise (in case of approval) and for sure the chances of a hostile take over is highly possible with several "folds" in the current price. Some people wrote things and usually don't weight the relevance of words... I'm placing here a clear belief I have. A hostile take over is highly possible and just few days after approval. With our current capitalization even a Huge upside hostile offer still will be peanuts. And all that "dream" just weeks far from now with so many positive indications, from 9x1, all team that worked side by side and step by step with FDA to know what they want with the most minor details. Inclusive the fact is an unmet and the level of results is not irrelevant. (can somebody dispute that ?)
3- How far we are ?
We are in a verge of see all the absolutely crazy existential exercise to become "priced" properly.
And pricewith the invisible number that now a days, most don't see.
Our 1.1/1.15 now is the best joke that in this current year(in my opinion and again not advice) all people will probably say. Why I didn't took at least a punt ?
Many years ago,,, I mean "many many" ( 7? 8?) the share was around 0.80-1.00 and I wrote here something like indicating my view was the share was heavily under priced and should be at least 100 or 200% higher than was at that time.
Now my "guess" is dramatically much more, and because we went all that time "alone"... now the invisible price, will be all ours.
CATO
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