Pretty much bang on. All it comes down to for me is, does the drug work? And would people be willing to pay for it if so?
Well a participant in the Phase II trial was literally begging our CSO to continue on with it after the trial ended, not to mention the 10+ IIH forum anecdotes of people using it off label and it working/in anguish that because of its diabetes indication they cant get a hold of it longer term... not to mention a 5,000 signature petition on change . org for it to be FDA approved quicker... for an indication that has 25,000 new patients annually, thats a mighty petition.
Secondly, will they be willing to pay for it if insurance doesnt cover it? Hmmm.. if they dont take it they have vision loss, constaint splitting headaches, and will need surgery every couple years to relieve the pressure.. they often cant work, cant socialise and cant parent with the involvement they desire.
Thats a no brainer.
Therefore, all this talk about the share price, the TA, the chart... its just meaningless to me.
If the drug works in the Phase III as it has in those people above, and they are willing to pay for it, thats at least $500M+ annually, up to $1.6B+ at 100% market pen.
Who cares if it was $100M MC once and now its $35M MC, point is in a few years time none of this matters, and the market cap very well could have a B following it. Thats why my obsession with the fundamentals has always stayed true; if you need to sell soon youre in strife, if you can hold the story just writes it self, IF the drug works. Your job is to do the DD and figure out if it is likely to or not, Ive done mine.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 100000 | 6.2¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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6.8¢ | 10000 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 100000 | 0.062 |
1 | 15500 | 0.061 |
1 | 150000 | 0.060 |
1 | 100000 | 0.052 |
1 | 60001 | 0.041 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.068 | 10000 | 1 |
0.069 | 16500 | 1 |
0.070 | 40000 | 1 |
0.076 | 888 | 1 |
0.083 | 4000 | 1 |
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