Ann: Thunderbird Construction 85% Complete, page-2

Nice to get confirmation nothing has gone badly wrong. To be true to my suspicious nature and holding all companies to account, I should point out the subtle changes in Bruce's commentary accompanying the last three TB updates.

"on schedule" has been omitted this time, circumstantial evidence that slippage from schedule has occurred, though not so far as to bump 1st Qtr 2024 first shipment (though 3 months is a very big landing strip). "Comfortably" within the current available funding has been removed to just "within", indicating cost slippage though not yet beyond the $73M of contingency and cost-overrun facility (also a large runway to land on).

Slippage is always disappointing but also to be expected (especially in WA these days). Fact he had a broker site tour early May (explains buying volume and price to 51c 3rd-10th May) demonstrates confidence that slippage in time/costs are not material to the project's on-site development and confidence things are well under control. TBH, it's not until after commercial nameplate production is achieved and any contractor escalation/penalty claims are in that performance against budget-design will be known.

For example. STA seems to be burning through a lot of their $50M 'Tanzania growth cash' from last year's CR, still not at nameplate performance 6 months after declaring commercial production. End Dec'22 STA had $44M cash less Acc Payable (no Acc Rec). Don't know change in Acc Payable emd Mar'23, but net cash dropped $16M further from Dec'22 so potentially down to net $28M (although Acc Pay probably dropped from $22M Dec to Mar'23, they also got hit with a $13M claim from plant build contractor tor McMahon). Without the $50 Tanzania growth CR () headroom shareholders would have been hit with a CR post-build but at much lower prices than mid-40's back before reality settled in.

Even as I type SFX is back to 48c after this mornings little excitement bump. With the inherent uncertainties of new mine developers and the markets, global economy generally right now, we shouldn't expect much different. The holding pattern continues for a while yet, fingers crossed the time/budget slippage is small and immaterial in the end. From my perspective, Bruce has consistently avoided making commitments he can't meet, generally guides low then meets/beats guidance. I view the deliberate change in wording as more of the same 'straight shooter' approach to keep shareholders accurately informed.

Back to sleep, GLTAH

Dec'22 Update

Feb'23 Update

May'23