Whist Theiss aren't guaranteed the mining contract. I think the link with Theiss would have given Hiatachi the confidence to enter the agreement to build the long lead items. the letter states the ability to onsell equipment if necessary. Also the manufacturers wan to build the equipment they themselves have the problem of a rush after a drought. They don't want to idle or lay off skilled workers then have to source them in a hurry when there is a sudden boom in prices and hence demand. You're right of course that is extremely well played by RXM mgt. to tap into that overall.
One of the things that makes me most angry and frustrated is that we pretty much know that there is going to be a huge demand for copper say from 2025. But current Cu market price signals including forwards to say a year is that it isn't apparent which means there's going to be a whipsaw and bad behaviour. In Cu and U I've taken the RXM position and am "suffering"* for it across the board but like with the gas in the Eastern states the coming shortage is blatantly obvious in that case for a decade.
All IMVHO.
* My overall isn't suffering it's holding it's own mainly from O/S inv. and the AUD weakness. Which itself stems from the short-term nature of the market displayed by metal prices.
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