deep horizon oil spill had a -ve effect on awe

Hello long suffering holders of AWE shares,


Consider the following two isolated facts & coincidences.

Date of accident in gulf of mexico April 20, 2010 .. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill

Date of announcement to move drilling rig away from Hoki. April 19, 2010 ... http://www.awexplore.com/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1684&EID=85724756
(Hoki-1 well will be plugged and abandoned and the rig will be moved to the Tui SW-1 well location.)


I conjecture that as at April 19, 2010 , market had already factored in the Hoki results into SP. The reason being a 1/10 chance of success is very low estimate to factor into the share price, and hence boost future SP NPV calculations.

I conjecture that Deep Horizon Oil Spill had a -ve effect on all explorers drilling offshore.

I conjecture that when Deep Horizon Oil Spill is thoroughly mitigated then AWE will play catch up with NPV of future AWE cash flows. AWE will then be back up to $2.70.


Are the above conjectures too left field or am I stating the obvious. I have been wrong before in my opinions & assessments. Does anybody have any arguments to the contrary. In the interests of the "pursuit of truth" or best estimate of future SP, I sincerely look forward to a response.


wbddrss