australia v germany do we have a chance at all, page-4

I read a review of Australia's group yesterday here -

http://worldcup.sportinglife.com/story/0,27111,18795_6185031,00.html

This bit made me laugh

"Germany have an enviable mentality when it comes to tournament football. A supremely masculine country,............... The Australians also boast a fearsome masculine sporting mentality.............the Serbs have a tempestuous nature that brings out a tendency to press the self-destruct button in the face of any perceived injustice................As the only nation with predominantly feminine values, Ghana must be careful"

Full article below


GROUP D

Germany
Australia
Serbia
Ghana

Synopsis:

The educated man's Group of Death. Forget the Fancy Dans like Didier Drogba and Cristiano Ronaldo coming up against Brazil in Group G, this is a section full of grit and determination where both mental and physical strength will be found in abundance. Germany qualified in impressive style with victories in both pivotal matches against Russia. After finishing third as hosts four years ago and reaching the final of Euro 2008, they will be looking to go one better this time around. Ghana made it all the way to the African Nations Cup final with a fringe squad at the start of the year and can now compliment that with the return of some real powerhouses. Australia are the most physically imposing team in Asia and undoubtedly the best suited to mixing it with the bigger nations from other continents on the world stage. Serbia appear to be an emerging force in European football. They have been prominent at younger levels in recent years and now seem to be transmitting it to the highest level, having qualified ahead of France with something to spare.

Managers:

Raddy Antic is most famously remembered in England for scoring the late winner that relegated Man City in 1983, prompting David Pleat's famous jig across the Maine Road pitch, but he also has an impressive managerial record, particularly in Spain. One of only two men to have managed both Real Madrid and Barcelona, he also led Atletico Madrid to a league and cup double in 1995/96. The section also contains another Serb in the shape of little-known Ghana boss Milovan Rajevac who has been particularly bullish about his team's chances of success in the opener against his native country in Pretoria on June 13, thanks to his specialist knowledge. Joachim Low has been at the German helm for four years on the back of a two-year spell as assistant, so he should be trusted to know exactly what's best for the Nationalmannschaft. Pim Verbeek has been present at the last two World Cups, serving as assistant to Guus Hiddink and then Dick Advocaat at South Korea, but he has yet to win over many doubters in three years since taking the job as Australia boss.

Cultural factors:

Germany have an enviable mentality when it comes to tournament football. A supremely masculine country, they tend to be at their most dangerous when the odds are stacked against them. Their hatred of defeat is unparalleled and they will stop at nothing to avoid it, as Sir Alex Ferguson was recently at pains to testify. In this respect, Joachim Low is a much better cultural fit for the national side than predecessor Jurgen Klinsmann who adopted a distinctly Scandinavian leadership approach in spite of his heritage, much to the initial confusion of his players. The Australians also boast a fearsome masculine sporting mentality and invariably respond well to adversity. However, the Serbs have a tempestuous nature that brings out a tendency to press the self-destruct button in the face of any perceived injustice. As the only nation with predominantly feminine values, Ghana must be careful that their comparative lack of killer instinct doesn't allow them to be swallowed up in such unforgiving company.

Truths:

Australia are not the team they were four years ago. The personnel might be more or less the same but Hiddink was the man responsible for moulding them into a whole greater than the sum of its parts. While Verbeek has been party to the secret of his fellow Dutchman's international success in the past, it's evident he's not a coach of the same calibre. Nikola Zigic could hold the key to Serbia's chances of progression. The newly-acquired Birmingham striker might not be the most aesthetically-pleasing performer at the finals but his impact could be devastating if delivery into the box is good. The same could also be said for Germany striker Miroslav Klose, despite a season spent mostly twiddling his thumbs on the bench at Bayern Munich. Former Czech marksman Jan Koller was the earliest example of the advantage to be gained by such an aerial presence on the international stage and now there's no shortage of beanpole forwards willing to make the difference in tight matches.

Misconceptions:

It would be dangerous to place greater stock in Ghana purely as a result of their impressive African Nations showing. The value in them as a World Cup commodity was at its highest before January, but making the final in Angola doesn't automatically enhance their chances here. If anything, they've let the cat out of the bag and merely drawn attention to themselves. Any boss would love to be in Rajevac's position of having such a selection headache, but there could be consequences to the morale of certain players whatever he decides now. Michael Ballack's absence is bound to be a blow to Germany but they tend to respond well to such adversity and we shouldn't suddenly expect them to blow up spectacularly at the group stage. As tough as this group is, the impact of Ballack's absence should only begin to affect them in the latter stages of the tournament against the genuine heavyweights. That said, it's true the ankle injury sustained by their captain does limit their chances of lifting the trophy, even though the outright market has barely shifted at all.

Verdict:

Germany should be fancied to get out of the group but they offer no real value to do so. Serbia boast a top manager and their qualifying record should be respected slightly more than it has been by the layers, which is where we see the slightest miscalculation in the prices. However, that's not enough to trigger our involvement, so we'll keep a watching brief. Such is the level of tenacity we're expecting to see from this section, it's not implausible that the two teams who progress might reach the last 16 drained by their efforts. Punters who subscribe to this chain of thought might see some appeal in the 12/5 quote available on Serbia to suffer elimination at the round of 16 but this group should be absorbing enough without any heavy investment and we reckon there's better bets to be had elsewhere.


Preview posted at 1030 BST on 02/06/2010.