I am normally a bullish option buyer, but as i have stated, the expiry date is not their death note, it is the cash runway timeline, that they must achieve a takeover before, or further dilution could kill them, and the risk that a takeover occurs at sub 3c = leverage kaput. Their win case is a takeover within the cash runway at higher prices.
Heads much safer at 1.3c v option at 0.4c, given multiple doors.
2 x heads = 2.6 = Zero x ops. FAIL 3 x heads = 3.9c = 2 x ops (0.9) FAIL 4 x heads = 5.2c = 5.5 x ops (2.2) WIN
So work out both the probability of a takeover not occurring within cash run way being fatal, or the takeover price not giving better return.
I agree, that it is most likely the "free" option, that is being considered a lottery ticket, that is with holding supply. Happy if we get a higher valuation takeover, but hedging risk.
OSL Price at posting:
1.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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