The Berlin Pharma shares are currently worthless. The shares were not bought by EMS. They were given. Their value is merely notional.
If Berlin Pharma is wound up, their assets will be sold, any debts repaid and then shareholders will receive any scraps left over.
But who knows? As Berlin Pharma gained a German govt grant, the liquidator may have to repay it (if they can).
EMS have 375m shares and 48m & 51m options.
Personally, I ask myself the question what can they sell the company for?
As an EMSO holder, I hope at least for 25 cents per share.
This values EMS at $103m.
I struggle to sense how they could sell the company for more than that (although just gut intuition). This is why EMS really need to finish more extensive trials and raise the profile of Artimist.
And this is why EMSO are being dumped.
At 30 cents per share, EMS is worth $127m.
At 15 cents per share, EMS is worth $59m.
Research report theorises $42m & $72m annual cash flow for 25m & 40m units respectively.
EMS has said possibly up to 100m units demand per annum (based on 86m annual reported cases and 287m annual cases in Africa). Plus there are other parts of the world.
To speculate on a base case of 30m units per annum, that is about $50m per annum in cash flow.
A trade sale at 2 x potential annual earnings = $100m.
This sounds optimistic to me however I hope they can do it.
Clearly there are large organisations spending a lot of funds annually fighting malaria and large pharma supplying this market.
EMS Price at posting:
4.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
