from my understanding the decree shouldn’t have any bearing on the project if it goes ahead. The only thing the decree helps with is potential funding from the Junta.
in any case, the EU will most likely be the ones funding it via the EU investment bank.
they will need to raise some equity for the project financing, probably 20% or 30%. Obviously they want to raise capital when the share price is higher. However, what fund managers will want to stump up $200m+ US before they have any approvals? None.
I’m not sure how much $ they will need to submit the initial plans to the Junta to assess but I suspect it will cost a few million.
it’s cheap atm because there is no certainty around the project. As soon as there is some clarity, the price could be many multiple times higher than it is now.
it’s going to be a bit of a waiting game until the market knows which way it’s going to go. It seems people like MOR1 (in country) believe it’s happening, but others from Australia are more suspect given the history of the thing.
as for the incoming government/council, it seems they want it to go ahead subject to the usual caveats about environmental assessments etc. the save the mountain crew seem to have received a punch in the face re their election wishes but I suspect they will start cranking up their propaganda again (what else can they do). This new government seems more commercial in their approach, which is good.
when the price was above $0.20 it was because investors thought they were close to a yes to starting the project. I also suspect management wanted those $0.12 options converted. Can it back to $0.20 in the short term? Maybe, but it depends on how enthusiastic the government/council is. If they show they want the project to happen, it will be above $0.20 quickly. If not, everyone will be waiting for the assessment to be completed most probably in Q1 2024.
looking at the recent trading, there is definitely some accumulation going on. Hopefully it’s patient capital rather than traders. It helps no one to see big price swings but that seller has been dropping $500 amounts into the bid for the last few weeks. Maybe they are trying to flush out the traders? Who knows but that sort of automated trading isn’t done by commsec traders.
well that’s enough dribbling from me.
I’m keen for other thoughts, even from (Mario) the platform’s HC monitor.
INF Price at posting:
12.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
