Fair points, however anticipated demand profiles have been all over the shop. Think 2019 and the crash in lithium pricing from late last year. Generally people didn't see it coming, and they were saying exactly what you are right now. Exponential demand, the only way is up, blah blah blah.
With the world as it is, it is very difficult to forecast anything for the next decade. Extremely reputable strategic analysts are predicting war with China by 2027. Where would that leave AGY (or any other company for that matter) if they partnered up with say Gangfeng? More broadly, what would this conflict do to EV mineral demand. The short answer is that it would be catastrophic, as we saw what happened recently to lithium prices off the back of tapering Chinese demand. Now I'm not saying any of this is likely in my view, I'm just pointing out that the demand forecasts are just as unreliable as the supply ones, and posters here will choose whichever fits their narrative. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
What I do know is that Newco (once AKE and LTHM merge) has significant uncontracted volume coming online soon from Olaroz Stage 2 and SDV Stage 1. The cumulative total of those brine projects is 40ktpa, or 20 x times AGY's initial projected output. Apart from 9.5ktpa that will be converted in-house at Naraha, the other 30-odd ktpa is uncontracted. So if indeed the demand is as you say, why aren't the Tier 1 operators tripping over themselves to contract the imminent additional volume fromm the larger player/s, as opposed to the currently very low volume available from AGY? Keen to hear your thoughts on that.
AGY Price at posting:
44.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
