About hedging, my thesis posted in Dec/Jan was to hedge with big US tech and tbills, in which that time I was seeing inflation to drop and huge cash rebound advantage to the tech, which ended up me moving all to the hedging lol. In past few weeks, I'm changing my view about tbills because of the inevitable big increase in debt ceiling, and yes I think money value should be much less valuable in next few years! However I see a big problem. Unlike other countries, US has big debt profile problem. US has 1T to expire this year and 2T to expire next year which means treasury will issue biggest debt in history in very short time that may need to attract private to buy/leverage (since RRP may unlikely help that easy). On other side, the Fed will keep on doing its QT, letting them expire from their balance sheet. This may cause deflationary force instead (in short term) but I also think that could be balanced out with weaknesses in USD. In summary yes money will be worthless, but the process of it (in short term) could be very volatile.
With inflation nowhere any peak, fiscal debt is obviously going exponential, making value of money going less. This is where I like to hedge them back with commodity here, and yes I m thinking about gold but not yet. I read interesting theory few weeks back about gold when it was around 2020$ USD which instead predicted incoming gold weakness. Of course this thesis doesn't make sense logically since debt will explode and money will go worthless. However if that will become true and gold is really going weaker in next 1 year, salute to someone out there able to predict that. It could be related to short term risk of the deflation process above or the Fed QT, however honestly I'm not sure lol. Or I may think about duration problem, long term (10-20+ years) may see more inflation than shorter in which of course there should be much less interest to buy the long duration. In worst case of repo spike like in Sept 2019, Fed should come back again doing QE and YCC and money should become much less valuable
I think it's very interesting to see and learn the potential volatility to next year.
(20min delay)