Hi
@dynofishLTR might receive a new takeover bid "quite soon" but it won't be any less than $6 because as I stated before all the takeoffer candidates should be aware of the price tag which LTR management has put on the project.
It is certain to me that they all know that price tag but we don't know it. We can guess it from what Tony O said; "ballpark away". That tells me it's $6+ too.
Therefore no one would be stupid enough to put a bid at $4. It'd be just another reason for a new rerate and that would also burn the shorters once more. As the shorters were shorting for building stakes but not aiming making profit from shorts (all being ALB associates IMO), ALB wouldn't do that bad decision once more.
If they want to increase their stake there is a lot of room up to $4 for them to buy slowly.
Anyway, if they put a bid on $4 I wouldn't even care about it, so would a lot of holders. We all know that LTR will have a mcap of $12b-13b mid next year. That implies around $6 sp. Why would I sell now at $4?
What TG said on the latest interview was right, even simply right. ALB wanted to takeover LTR less than the value of its two years profit.Simple calculation; (annual sales)
600kt spod @ US$4000/t = US$2.4b revenue (AU$3.7b)
The cost of that is 600kt x US$500/t = US$300m (AU$450m)
The annual profit before tax is A$3.2b
2 Years profit is $6.4bSo offering AU$5.5b was an insult by ALB.
$4 offer would also be an insult.
Also it's not only ALB who wants to be big in lithium business, or in desperately in need to secure the lithium supply. There are many others.
I said before WES is the best suitor IMO. WES has the possibility to offer cash plus script (WES shares), for example $3.5 cash $3.5 WES shares.
We may also see WES as our JV partners for our downstream refinery business. Its expertise in downstream refinery is definitely would be a plus for us.
Even if ALB would make that stupid mistake and put a $4 offer to LTR, LTR management would reject it. Then you might see an offer from WES, or someone else.
Anyway it's obvious to me that I should be patient and confident about LTR and hold tight. The EV sales are skyrocketing. The lithium supply/demand deficit is going to get wider. If our management can't get a satisfactory offer to sell LTR then we will be the shareholders of lithium producer which has huge upside.
Just need more patience.
(20min delay)