Hey Rosen,
If you numbers are correct regarding the increase of grade for the Murchison region, at a process rate of 2.7mtpa (Tuckabianna runs at just over 1.3mpta and Bluebird is barely reaching 1.4mtpa), I get an increase in ounces of approx 43k, or 40k at 92% recovery. I wonder if MGVs ore will enable them to throttle up at Bluebird...? Then the extra say, 0.3mtpa would push the total increase up to 45k.
Currently the Murchison region produces approx 200k as you mention, so this would bolster WGX overall production profile to WGX own mentioned target of 290-300k p.a. It's an incremental increase in their production profile, but.... it will not get them to the 400k they are aiming for in FY2024.
Logically the only way they can do that is to acquire GCY.
MGVs board is IMHO largely responsible for their company getting what I think most would agree is not an exciting premium at all.
But... they chose to run the company in what I view, as a lifestyle choice.
Upon thinking about the move this afternoon, I gather that WGX sees the acquisition as a low cost way to bolster their grade throughput, not really their reserves. I also wonder.... if maybe
@wassa was right, perhaps Great Fingall will just be a 'Great Finger' and hence the move on MGV saves them setting up the U/G, and instead can focus on small open pits with high grades.
Not nice to see my 2nd largest holding fall so hard, but.... the game has only just started, lots more to come.
I do really hope WGX don't overpay for MGV, as the reality is the assets are not going anywhere.
(20min delay)