Sorry guys, I have been busy and not had a chance to check into HC today.
I did manage to get an email out to Brett, Paul and Dougal and am very interested to see what they come back with.
I am not sure if I will get a response???
If I don't, it will just be another point to raise at the AGM.
Full disclosure, Some content has been censored.
KEEPING THE SHARKS AT BAYHi Dougal,
my name is Loui, and as yet, our paths have not crossed.
Last year, I had the pleasure to meet Anthony, Paul and Brett at the AGM, which was an opportune time to engage with the team directly.
I spoke with Anthony on Friday the 2nd with some concerns and thought I would also touch base with you.
As for background, I have been following Sayona for quite some time, and have been invested since 2019.
To aid the company in its endeavours, I am an avid supporter of Sayona on social media, have taken part in capital raisings whenever offered to retail holders, and more recently, havesent you a very big cheque to convert my options, as I was a mid tier top 20 SAYOC holder.
So, it is safe to say, I am invested here...in a big way.
The execution of the restart of operations at NAL, have been beyond reproach and as an investor, everything we could have hoped for.
In the current climate, on time and on budget, for any project, is an outstanding outcome.
The brownfield status of NAL certainly accelerated specific aspects, but also presented its own unique set of challenges,
which I believe the team took onboard and overcame efficiently and professionally.
I raised concerns during the 2022 AGM, of which I was assured the team would endeavour to rectify.
You may have watched a recording the 2022 AGM, where I can be heard engaging Paul and Brett.
Unfortunately, some of these concerns remain, and have led me to contacting Anthony, Paul, Brett and yourself.
I would like to draw your attention to some instances which still raise concerns, not only with the retail investors, but with the broader market, as witnessed by the trading activity and short interest in Sayona.
Short interest, and trading activity, which in my view, warrants investigation.
These instances, attract ambiguity, conjecture and doubt over your endeavours in Quebec and WA.
Endeavours which do not deserve this type of attention.
Endeavours, whose actions should speak louder and drown out the negative sentiment they have been attracting.
Unfortunately, this is not the world we live in.
Fundamentals alone, are not enough.
The reality is one has to be diligent with all aspects of one's business- finance, accounts, execution, forecasts, environment, social license and communication, amongst others.
For without doing the utmost to ensure all these aspects are unassailable, an organisation is not doing all it can, to protect itself from this attention.
Unnecessary attention, by the darker forces on the ASX, which look for any weakness to exploit, and thrive on errors in accounts,missed timeline targets, ambiguity and silence.
A closer look at our trading activity, chart Technicals, short interest andcontraction in market capitalisation, certainly does paint a picture, particularly since entering the ASX200 index.
And what picture does it paint?
If one was purely to interpret these signals, and ignore the fundamental improvements, it indicates a company who is in distress, has failed to hit its targets, exceeded its forecast cash burn and is ultimately headed toward its own demise.
An analyst's view may be similar.
Possibly interpreting the chart Technicals, short interest, the contraction in market capitalisation, the accounting errors, the missed targets for announcements with no explanation as-
Untenable....Un-investable....A sinking ship???
Conversely, if the strong fundamentals ARE then taken into consideration....a Take-Over target?
With market capitalisation at AU$1.63B, or now AU$1.8B with the CR tranche of shares added, there certainly is an argument to suggest that Sayona is now in definite take over territory...aggressive take over territory.
2023 has already proven to be the breakout year of mergers, acquisitions and take overs, and whether you subscribe to this activity or not, Sayona is definitely at a point which could warrant such hostility.
And, with this continual contraction of market capitalisation and share price, with the accounting errors, announcement errors, missed targets and ambivalence this creates, there is not an investor out there, that would not consider an offer....probably even a subpar offer.
Many of us want to see this through.
To see Sayona become the uber successful, multi mineral, multi-jurisdictional mega miner we know it can become.
Indeed, this is the vision, Brett's vision, which we subscribe to.
Northern Hub- World-wide Tier 1 asset, 3 concentrators yielding around 1 megatonne SC6, feeding a 100kt hydroxide plant at Resolute's old paper mill in Amoss, maybe even an integrated CAM plant with the right partner, and possibly even some 'value add' rare earth elements...
Southern Hub- NAL/Vallee super pit, Authier...Tansim down the track, feeding 2 concentrators yielding 500kt SC 5.4-6.0, 30kt- 60kt carbonate, possibly even bolt on Hunwick's ICS hydroxide circuit.
(BTW... Do not underestimate where carbonate is headed with LFP proliferation)
Now who would not want to be part of that?
We do, and I bet after all this time, all this hard work, all this sacrifice.....you guys do too.
After the AGM in 2022, as things were winding down, I briefly spoke to both Paul and Brett about take overs.
The Troilus deal had not been announced yet, and I referred to Jourdan-
'It looks like we will be the Acquirer , NOT the acquired', I remarked and both Brett and Paul nodded in approval.
Paul replied 'There are sharks circling, and as we get bigger, we just attract bigger sharks'.
I replied "Yes, these big boys can be very aggressive', and he agreed.
The big boys are circling and the hard truth about take overs, is you never know who, what, when, where and how.....you usually don't know until its too late....
Our current predicament, has elevated us to the unenviable position as a prime target.
Strong, fundamentals- Currently in production and on the cusp of revenue generation with a fast track to carbonate, Tier one jurisdictions, ESG and IRA compliant, in a recovering commodity with a structural deficit on the verge of a super cycle, a very low market capitalisation, broker share price downgrades and a disenchanted investor base....whose belief is wavering and who may be running out of patience.
So, at some point, you have to ask yourself, 'Are we doing absolutely everything we can to protect our company?'
Accounting/Announcement errors continue-
6th June 2023- Yep, just yesterday-The old company address on the ASX 708 cleansing notice...look at the bottom!
1st May 2023 - Change in Director's interest B. Lynch
3rd February 2023 - Revised Appendix 5B Quarterly Cash Flow Report
5th July 2022 - Change in Director's Interest B. Lynch
Announcement timeline targets-
NAL DFS- Due February 2022- Delivered 14th April 2023
NAL carbonate PFS- Due March 2023- Pending( reported by Dougal with board and management for review)
NAL second offtake - Imminent stated since February 2023
Moblan PFS - Due May 2023 - Pending and has disappeared from the latest investor presentation.
ASX rule 3.1-
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Simply, as an organisation, we need to improve.
The grand plan, the fundamentals, the actions thatreallymatter, are exceptional...world class.
But it is that last ten percent, which lets us down, where we need to improve-
Accounts... triple checked
Communication.... improved
Targets met.....or delays explained.
Trading activity and shorting..... forensically investigated. Don't just settle and use the short interest to explain the share price. Have the shorting and the trading activity thoroughly reviewed by industry experts. Forensic accountants who specialise and analyse these matters.
You need to keep the sharks at bay, while we are in such a vulnerable position.
The circling sharks that Paul had mentioned, on that day we met last November.
Our future as a company, depends on it.
Brett staying in control, depends on it.
Please know, this email comes from a good place, of whose intentions are unfeigned.
Also know, particularly from your long-term retail investor base, you have masses of support.
If there is any way I could assist, please do not hesitate to reach out.
Additionally, when availability suits, I would like to meet in person at Eagle Street or in Melbourne and discuss these matters further.
At last year's AGM, I was asking so many questions, Brett told me future questions would cost me one beer per question.
It may have even reached two beers at one stage.
Please let Brett know (or If you are reading this Brett) I am bringing a Toohey's New 30 can block next November...
Sincerely,
Loui.
(20min delay)