50 years of suppressing silver (and gold), page-19

"Perhaps at some stage I will sell down half my gold shares in anticipation of a major fall, with the intent of buying more cheaply later (or at least avoiding a possible wipeout). I am not sure when to do this or if I have the skill to do it successfully."

Loki, since starting full-time investing almost 3 yrs ago this has become my focus (as well as better understanding the gold mining business and updating quarterly statistics of all the ASX producers). I wasn't sufficiently organised to recognise the March 2008 peak for what it was, but did act on the extremely rare opportunity later that year for "blue chip" juniors (if there is such a thing LOL).

I'm tracking indicators like Market Vane bullish consensus, HUI/gold ratio, Kern's SKI system, futures open interest/commercial short position, gold/silver ratio, yield spreads, real interest rates. I have a couple of mates tracking other things like exchanges rates, Baltic Dry Index and monitoring other sectors. I keep updated with what respected commentators, Hotcopper posters are saying.

For mine, market sentiment is a huge driver on the upside and downside, regardless of what the fundamentals say. I'm not going to sit through the next intermediate peak then correction (a la 2004, 2006, 2008). Since the carnage in 2008 confidence is slowly returning to gold stocks but it's taking time for investors to rebuild their confidence. I'm patiently long right now.

Rowingboat