As I said in December, I wasn't planning to post on TNT in 2023, but it seems in 2024 TNT won't be listed on the ASX, so I'll post my 2c now.
When I saw the quarterly in January I was glad to have decided not to post, because it avoided yet another episode of saying the price was obviously going to crash while everyone cried about me saying what they didn't want to accept. Same thing again in April, although through May I actually did finally think there was some chance of a takeover or even ignoring that, at under 6c it really just looked incredibly cheap. The reason I didn't buy in was that I wasn't going to sit around bitching about the current incompetent management as a shareholder, I decided to sit on the sidelines until something changed, because without a change of people calling the shots, this was only going to continue downwards.
This takeover is a great deal for holders, and also an excellent lesson for anyone who was holding with hopes of ever seeing 30-50c (or some have even suggested higher). If the price is clearly, clearly going to crash, it's silly to sit there holding while it does. A takeover was never going to be attempted immediately after a bad quarterly - why would you put in a bid for something which is obviously going to collapse in price? They're not stupid, and neither should we be.
The takeover offer is pretty generous, they no doubt could have bought it for less, but they put in a higher offer presumably as insurance against a competitor making an offer resulting in them being in a bidding war. I'm fairly confident that it'll go through at 13c (and it's almost certainly not going to fall through, though if it did, the price would probably crash back to around 8c - lower because the same garbage team would be running it in the same garbage way, but not to its previous lows because we've seen a demonstration that the company is worth more, at least if it falls into competent hands)
Several people have answered the question asked a few times about why it's trading below the 13c offer price - risk avoidance, getting it done now rather than waiting for months (I'd personally rather take my money now rather than wait months for an extra pip, but if you disagree, load up with as much as your heart desires at 12.5c, there is no shortage of supply and if you think it's worthwhile there's nothing stopping you from grabbing huge volume), and getting it done this financial year rather than next - most people will be on a loss and many would like to lock those losses in this year rather than next.
Someone made the excellent point about your entry price being irrelevant to the best decision to make at any time. Whether you paid 1c or $100, a thing is worth what it is worth and the price will go where it goes. The market does not care at all, not in the slightest little bit, what you paid. So many people justify holding something because it is below what they paid, and that just drags them down to larger losses. Many people just seem incapable of understanding it, but it is absolutely true for everything other than your fragile ego that the price you paid has zero importance or relevance to what you should do with your holding. Whether you recently paid around 4c or a couple of years ago you paid around 40c, this takeover has just prevented you from losing more money (or has allowed you to make more money than you would have if you waited and the takeover never came, or came later).
I think the main lesson people are likely to learn from TNT over the last three years or so is that you're generally going to burn yourself with the mindset of 'if only management could do a better job this company would shoot skywards, so I'll buy/hold'. This year I have been watching people comment on TNT talking about voting against directors' interests, wanting to vote them out, etc. I absolutely roll my eyes when I read this because your vote means nothing at all. The insanity of voting against the management of a company in a stock you hold just doesn't seem apparent to these people. Consider this: you know you are going to fail in trying to vote against their performance nonsense, you're almost always going to fail at trying to vote them out (and TNT is an obvious example of this never going to happen), and so by holding, you are openly doing something which you know is not a good idea. The only way to actually vote in a way which counts is to sell your shares, which should just be the overwhelmingly obvious course of action if you are not happy with the situation and you are voting for something which just will not happen. It really has been quite remarkable how badly management have been running TNT at a loss despite the nature of the company and the market conditions, but that's not a reason to buy/hold and be frustrated, it's a reason to sell/watch and wait until something changes before taking a position.
Sorry for the long post, but hey, it's six months' worth.
Well done to anyone who genuinely has an average buy price under 12c (I saw a couple of amusingly obviously false claims, heh heh) and hey, congratulations to all holders on this takeover coming along. I'm glad I made money on TNT along the way, a little sad I didn't buy in over the last month, but selling out at more than double the current price certainly served me well. For holders, perhaps the best (or at least most pleasant) thing about TNT being delisted from the ASX is that Sdaji won't be posting about it any more!
To those who did enjoy or find my posts useful over the last 3 years, you're welcome, and to the others, heh, I'll finally bluntly say I told you so and you should have listened!
