Definitely something fishy going on regarding new interpretations of the structures, need to take it at face value for the time being until more data is known (if they ever release it).
Regarding oil - The metrics for oil projects in the PB have changed somewhat. It used to be a fairly straightforward process to recover it, little bit of processing and then stick it on a truck to Perth for instant monetization. Now that the Kwinana BP refinery has been shuttered it means all oil has to go offshore or over to the east coast for refining, which changes the cost metrics for processing and monetizing it. They will find a way to do it, just won't be as quick and easy as it has been in the past.
Re your notes regarding new man - I feel that much of the specialised industry knowledge for these projects is being devalued by upper echelons of businesses these days so it's falling by the wayside. With third party companies around the world pedalling EPCM contracts for all types, shapes and sizes of modular plants it looks to me as though businesses believe it is far more desirable to have someone who can manage timelines and costs and just buy an off the shelf plant.
I imagine every business that builds a gas plant these days will go for the modular model, makes it far easier to sell the business case at a board level as scale ups happen once cash flows have been established. The risk is reduced significantly for things that can only be determined once HC's begin flowing from a field, such as reservoir performance etc... see reserves write-downs for Santos and Mitsui . It would take a ballsy MD to pull the trigger on a 250TJ/Day domestic gas plant in favour of the scale-up method into account.
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$45.91 |
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