I agree that BARDA revenue won't have a direct impact on the share price but it would come in handy in offsetting some of the increasing expenses, especially if it comes in this quarter before the sales ramp up.
On 6/16/23 U.S. Army Health Contracting Activity issued Special Notice W81K00-23-P-0151 for RECELL System due 6/20/23Appreciate you sharing your sp thoughts, this analyst (12/5/23) happens to be at the mid-point of your share price target though so he must be right
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Although the FDA approvals are very important achievements and improve the chances of commercial success, the company still has to prove to the market they can access that potential revenue efficiently. For this reason, at this stage of the company's life cycle, I've also set my expectations for the share price to follow revenue (actual and forecast).
For entertainment purposes only (no chance of being accurate), I'll share my very rough workings.
Other than reviewing analyst research (often looks & turns out to be inaccurate too), I've found the simplest way for me to estimate where I think fair value should be, is to plug the old price/sales ratio into my non-DCF-noob model 10000. Apparently the 3-year average P/S ratio for the Australian biotech industry is now 9.7, and the 5-year average P/S ratio for the U.S. biotech & medical industry is 12.1 so I've used these values, and some guesstimates on future revenue (best-case?) & shares outstanding to calculate the share price estimates below:
At the end of the day, all I know is the company is fundamentally in the best position it's been in and it looks like it will continue improving to me.
(20min delay)