At 50k+ ton, all bets are off.
AFM, Myanmar, Indo and any other tin pot () miner with a gramme of sn, will feed as much as they can into the market.
Like a frog in a saucepan, the tin price really needs to execute a gradual increase, and perceive to follow inflation only, simply to stop these surges of excess supply, as the buyers will load up each time there is a notable pullback in price.
Dunno how that will play out however...
It would be VERY intriguing if they do stick to their guns however, and Alphamin/Cornish throttle output , in order to extend mine lives.
$$$
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